GapOdds lines up every player's projection against his Vegas player prop lines, so you can see at a glance where our numbers and the books disagree, and how strong our read is on each pick.
Everything is in the ☰ Menu at the top of every page. The Gap Report is the heart of the site: pick a sport (NFL, College Football, NBA or UFC) and you get that sport's Gap Sheet, with the 🧮 Slip (the Prop Calculator) floating at the bottom of the page (tap ‹ to tuck it to the side). The site remembers the last sport you picked. Big buttons pick the list: the Gap25, Open Range, Special Gaps, Every Gap (the position tables), 🐎 The Posse (your picks and the members you follow) and the Fantasy Pros. Bounty Board keeps the records (the Gap25, the Fantasy Pros and member picks), Riding Hot shows the players who keep clearing (or missing) their lines, and Usage has snap counts and each player's share of his team's plays. Fantasy Football and DFS hold the fantasy tools and lineup optimizers, Research has Player Details, Defense vs Position and offense pages for each sport (plus Fighter Details for UFC), and About has this guide, subscribing, Contact Us (with our Sleeper, Underdog and PrizePicks promo codes), Contact a Fantasy Pro and the Release Notes.
Pick a position, then read each row left to right. Every stat (passing yards, receptions and so on) has its columns side by side: Prop line is the consensus Vegas line from major sportsbooks (or the book you choose under Lines:, below). Proj is our projection for this game, with his season median (his middle game this season) under it. Gap % compares the projection with the line, Confidence is how strong our read is on the side the gap points to (a Strong or Low bar, below), and Vote holds the O/U buttons for your own picks (subscribers). After all the stats, Defense shows the opponent's rank against the pass and the run (1 is toughest, 32 is softest: ranked by the yards it allows) and how many passing and rushing touchdowns it allows per game. The 🏈 chip shows his team's run/pass tendency this season.
Gap % is our projection minus the line, divided by the line. A quarterback projected for 280 passing yards against a 250.5-yard line shows +11.8%. Positive gaps lean over, negative gaps lean under, and the bigger the number, the further our projection sits from what the books expect.
Every prop gets a confidence rating, learned from every pick we've graded this season and how often this player has cleared this line himself. It's shown as a small bar. Strong (green) props have won about 57–61% of the time this season,High (lighter green) props are rated highest and have won about as often as Strong (about 58–60%), but there are fewer, so they're less tested; Low (red) props have won about 45%. In the NFL the Gap25 is built only from Strong props, starters only, closest to the line first, one per player, and the Bounty Board shows how each level actually did.
Likely % is used on the Special Gaps (touchdown and interception props). Everywhere else shows Confidence.
Likely % is GapOdds' estimated chance a pick beats the sportsbook's line. It's built from the player's projection for this game (his history, the opposing defense, game context and injuries) and how much he swings from game to game, then pulled slightly toward 50% because no projection is perfect.
We grade every pick after the game, and the Bounty Board shows how each color actually hit, so you can check us.
At a sportsbook, a standard −110 bet pays $0.91 on top of each $1, so a pick has to win 52.4% of the time to break even. Pick'em apps (PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, Dabble) pay by the slip instead: on a standard 2-pick Power play, each pick has to hit about 57.7% of the time to break even. That's why green starts at 60%: it clears both.
Confidence and Likely % are guides, not guarantees. A Strong or green pick still loses some of the time. Bet what you can afford to lose.
Gap Picks has the Gap25 (25 Strong-Confidence props this week, one per player), for the NFL and college football Special Gaps (touchdown and interception props: Anytime TDs are graded by how much our chance beats the sportsbook's; passing TDs and interceptions use the Likely colors), and Open Range (every other prop with a line, the ones not in the Gap25 or Special Gaps, so a player can show up for more than one stat). Next to the Filters button, the small Sort button reorders what you're looking at (Confidence, biggest gaps or biggest line moves). The people lists are big buttons on the same page: 🐎 The Posse (your picks, or the members you follow, chosen in its Whose picks dropdown) and Fantasy Pros (our pros' picks). Tap O or U on any of them. Guests see picks #5, #8 and #12 of the Gap25 (Special Gaps and Open Range are locked), free members picks #5, #8, #12, #15 and #18 and the top 3, and subscribers all of it.
The Lines: menu at the top of the NFL, College Football and NBA sheets picks which line the sheet compares against. Consensus (the default) is the middle line across the major sportsbooks. Pick a single book (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and others) or a pick'em app (PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6) to see that book's line and gap instead (Confidence stays the consensus one); a dash means that book doesn't have the prop. Best line shows, for each prop, the friendliest line on the side our gap points to (the lowest line for an over, the highest for an under), with the book's name under it. Pick'em apps are never part of the consensus. Your picks, the Gap25, the Gap Challenge and Results always use the consensus line, whatever the menu shows.
Line movement: a small ▲3 or ▼1.5 next to a line means it has moved that much since it first opened this week (tap or hover for the opening line and the day). Nothing shows when the line hasn't moved. ⇅ Biggest movers sorts the players whose lines moved most.
Game by game: open a card's Player details to see a bar chart of his recent games against this line: green bars cleared it, red bars fell short, grey landed right on it, with “Over in 7 of last 10” on top and a “vs” button for past games against this week's opponent. Every player page has the same chart for each stat.
Each projection is adjusted for this game's conditions: weather, the betting spread and total, injuries around the player and the matchup. Players listed as Out on the official injury report show no projection.
🔺 Teammate out: when a key teammate is out, we adjust the players who pick up his work, based on years of history. A 🔺 next to a name means one of his team's key players is Out or Doubtful this week; tap it to see how he's done in games without that teammate. Player pages list these under When a teammate is out.
🔙 Back: when a key player returns from injury, the receivers who picked up his work while he was out are adjusted back down for his first few games back. The card says who is back.
Before each game, GapOdds saves every line along with its projection, gap and Confidence. After the games, each pick is graded against the box score: over when the gap was positive, under when it was negative. The Bounty Board shows the season record and hit rate (the Receipts), including how each Confidence level actually hit.
Subscribers pick right on the Vegas line: every line shows O and U buttons on either side of it (Yes and No for anytime touchdowns). Tap a side to pick it, tap it again to remove it, or tap the other side to switch. Your pick is highlighted, and picks lock when the game kicks off. You can pick the same way from the Gap25, Open Range, Special Gaps, the Fantasy Pros list, members you follow and Riding Hot. The + next to a pick (subscribers) adds it to the 🧮 Slip, on the Gap Report and on Riding Hot. The 🤠 Fantasy Pros button on Gap Pick'ems shows what The Outlaw and our fantasy pros picked this week: all of them together, or one pro at a time. They pick the same way subscribers do, with the same limits, so their picks also count in the Members' Top 10.
Guests (no account) can read every overview and research page, with the top 5 rows of each research list, plus every player's general stats and picks #5, #8 and #12 of the Gap25. Members have a free account: every research page in full (every row, every filter and column), picks #5, #8, #12, #15 and #18 of the Gap25, the top 10 rows of Riding Hot and the Watch List. They can make Over/Under picks on the Gap25 rows they see. Every menu item and every filter shows for everyone; on the Gap Report and Bounty Board only the sport picker works until you subscribe.
Subscribers have Gaps ($7.99/month or $79.99/year): every row and every filter, our projections, gaps and Confidence, every sportsbook's lines, making picks and O/U votes, the Gap Challenge and posting on The Smack, in all four sports.
Two packages sit on top, and any account can add them, with or without Gaps: Fantasy Football ($29.99/year: Start 'Em / Sit 'Em, Matchup Projections, the Trade Analyzer and Trade Finder, Waiver Wire and Trending) and DFS ($19.99/year: the DraftKings and FanDuel Optimizers). With yearly Gaps, Fantasy Football is $24.99 and DFS $14.99; DFS is also $14.99 with Fantasy Football. Create a free account or see packages.
It's how far our projection for a player sits above or below his Vegas prop line, as a percentage of the line. A receiver projected for 75 yards against a 60.5-yard line has a gap of +24%. Positive gaps lean over; negative gaps lean under.
How strong our read is on a prop, for the side the projection leans (over or under). It's shown as a small bar with a word: Strong (green) props have won about 57–61% of the time this season, and Low (red) props about 45%. High (lighter green) props are rated highest and have won about as often as Strong (about 58–60%), but there are fewer of them, so they're less tested. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Green (Likely, 60% or better) clears break-even at the sportsbooks (52.4% at −110) and on pick'em apps (57.7% per pick on a 2-pick Power play). Yellow (Lean, 52.4% to 59%) wins at the sportsbooks over time, but slim, and is below break-even on most pick'em apps. Red (Pass, under 52.4%) is below break-even at standard −110 odds.
The median is the middle game: half his games were higher, half were lower. One huge game (or one game he left early) can drag an average a long way, but it barely moves the median, so the median is closer to what he does in a typical week, and that's what a prop line is betting on.
The season median is his middle game this season. The projection is our number for this game: it starts from his history and adjusts for the defense he faces, this game's conditions and injuries around him. A back facing a weak run defense usually projects above his median; one facing a strong one, below it.
It's part of the Gap Report: subscribers open it with the 🧮 Slip button at the top of any sport's sheet (NFL, College Football, NBA or UFC), and the ← Back link returns to the sheet right where you were. Search a player or fighter, pick a stat and a side, and type the line from your app (the sheet's line is filled in). Add up to 8 picks to see each pick's Likely % (the Slip's own estimate at the line you type, with its color), the chance they all hit (Parlay Likely), the chances for each Flex payout tier, the combined gap and what the parlay earns in GapPoints if it hits. Picks in the same game tend to move together, so the calculator flags them. It's for comparing picks, not advice.
GapPoints are how saved parlays are scored. A parlay you save from the Slip that hits earns its odds as points: the winnings on a 100-point stake. GapOdds works out the payout from the odds, not from payouts you type in. Power (all must hit) pays every leg's odds multiplied together: anytime touchdown and UFC winner or method legs use their real odds, and over/under legs use the standard -110. Three over/under legs that all hit make a +596 parlay, so 596 GapPoints. Flex pays the standard Flex table by how many hit: 5 of 6 pays 2x, which is 100 GapPoints; 4 of 6 pays 0.4x, which earns 0. Misses and refunds earn 0, and points are never taken away. Pushes and voids drop out of the parlay. Your GapPoints are the total from all your graded parlays, shown on your member page, the Bounty Board and the GapPoints leaderboard on the Members page. They're just for fun and bragging rights: they have no cash value and can't be bought or redeemed.
As many as you like. 7 a week can be ranked (all sports together): those count for GapPoints. Parlays are separate from your picks: they never count toward your weekly pick limit or the Gap Challenge. The week runs Tuesday to Tuesday, so the ranked count resets every Tuesday at 12:00 AM ET, and the Slip shows how many you have left. Every other parlay saves unranked: no GapPoints, no limit, and it doesn't count toward your weekly pick limit either.
A ranked parlay, no: it's locked the moment you save it. Your picks on the Gap Report are separate, so they stay yours to change. Unranked parlays can't be deleted either. Check your slip before you tap Save.
Subscribers can see members' saved parlays on Parlays, the Bounty Board and member pages. Ranked parlays (the ones that earn GapPoints) always show. To keep your unranked parlays private, go to Account and turn off Show my unranked parlays to other members. Fantasy pros choose which of their parlays are listed under their pro name by tapping ☆ List as Pro pick on a parlay card; that list can differ from the parlays under their screen name.
Every team's depth chart, refreshed every morning and again before each kickoff. Starters are the players each team actually lines up with most, and anyone ruled Out or Doubtful moves down so the next man up is promoted. The Gap25 is starters only, and Depth: Starters shows just them. Open a receiver or tight end's card to see his team's starting set. Backups only show prop lines when sportsbooks post them. Quarterbacks show passing yards, passing touchdowns and interceptions. Running backs show rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown. Receivers and tight ends show receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown.
Player stats, defense rankings and projections update every Tuesday after the week's games. Vegas prop lines and the injury report update every morning; the injury report also updates right after the league's 4 PM ET deadline on report days (Monday to Saturday), with newer status changes from ESPN's injury news; and both update again 75 minutes before every kickoff (Thursday night, each Sunday window, Sunday night, Monday night and Saturday games), around when inactives are announced. Players ruled out drop off, and games that have started keep their last pre-game line.
That's what the Bounty Board tracks. Every week, each pick is saved before kickoff and graded against the box score, with hit rates broken down by gap size, position and stat. Past results don't guarantee future results.
Yes, for games played outdoors. Each projection is adjusted for this game's conditions, weather included. Domes and stadiums with closed roofs are marked Indoors.
When a key teammate is out, we adjust the players who pick up his work, based on years of history. A 🔺 next to a name shows it, and the player's card says who is out. When he comes back, the receivers who filled in for him come back down too; the card says "Back:" and who returned.
No. It's a research tool. It doesn't take bets, and nothing on it guarantees a result. It's for adults 21 and over.