NFL Pick'ems

Our pick for every game: who wins and how often, our odds, our side against the spread and our over or under. Graded after every game.

Winners64.9%176–95–1Vegas favorites won 65.3% of these games
Against the spread51.7%140–131–1−3.7 unitsVegas favorites covered 48.3% of these games
Over / under54.2%136–115+8.6 unitsOvers hit 52.2% of these games

2025 season. Units: 1 unit on each pick, Winners at the Vegas moneyline, against the spread and over/under at standard −110 odds (break-even 52.4%).

How we've done · 2025 season
How our picks have done, 2025 season (break-even is 52.4% at −110 odds)
PickRecordHit %
Winners176–95–164.9%; Vegas favorites 177–94
ATS140–131–151.7%; Favorites covered 131–140–1
Over/Under136–11554.2%; Overs 131–120

52.4% break-even (spread and over/under at −110)

Week 9

This week's picks are for subscribers

Our call on all 15 games: the winner and how often, our odds, and our side against the spread and the total. The records and charts below show how they've done.

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What the numbers mean

  • Winner: the team we expect to win and how often we expect it to win a game like this one. Our odds are that win % written as American odds (−165 means a favorite we expect to win about 62% of the time), next to the sportsbooks' moneyline.
  • Needs X% to break even: how often a team has to win for its Vegas moneyline to pay off (−150 needs 60%, +150 needs 40%).
  • ATS: the side we expect to cover the Vegas point spread.
  • Over/Under: whether we expect more (O) or fewer (U) points than the Vegas total, with the total and score we expect.
  • Rating (Low · Lean · Strong): how picks like this one have done for us so far. Strong is our best group; Low has no edge.
  • Records: every graded game in the season you choose (this season, last season or all-time). Spread and over/under picks are graded at the closing Vegas line, and a push doesn't count either way.
  • Units: Winners are also graded at the real odds — 1 unit on each pick at its Vegas moneyline (a −200 winner pays 0.5, a +150 winner 1.5, a loss costs 1). Picks without a saved moneyline count in the record only. Spread and over/under picks are graded at standard −110: a win pays 0.91, a loss costs 1, a push nothing.
  • Favorites covered / Overs hit: how often the Vegas favorite covered the spread, and how often the game went over the total, in the same games we picked. A coin-flip market sits near 50%.

For entertainment and information. No pick is a sure thing.