The Outlaw's Saturday Picks: 3 Chalk, 3 Upsets

Six games, six winners. Three of them are favorites I trust. Three of them are underdogs I think win outright.

Here's the card for Saturday, and why. Lines are as of Saturday morning and can move before kickoff. The game cards show the latest.

The card:

Utah over BYU (Utah -4.5) · Noon ET, ABC
Missouri over Texas 🐶 (Missouri +2.5) · Noon ET, ESPN
Syracuse over Clemson 🐶 (Syracuse +2.5) · Noon ET
UConn over North Carolina 🐶 (UConn +7.5) · Noon ET
Auburn over Arkansas (Auburn -11.5) · 12:45 p.m. ET
Baylor over Iowa State (Baylor -9.5)

🐶 = underdog

The Upsets
Missouri over Texas

Missouri is getting points at home, and I'll take that every time with a team that can run the ball like this. Jamal Roberts has already cleared 1,000 yards with 9 touchdowns, and Missouri can lean on him to shorten the game and keep Arch Manning (1,727 yards, 15 TDs) on the sideline.

The one thing that scares me is Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons and his 10.5 sacks. If Missouri stays ahead of the chains and keeps feeding Roberts, Simmons has a lot less chance to take over. Home crowd, physical run game, a short line. Missouri wins it.

Syracuse over Clemson

Clemson has already lost to LSU, Miami and Virginia Tech this season, and now it's only laying 2.5 at home. That tells you everything. Clemson is starting a true freshman at quarterback in Tait Reynolds. He's talented, but he's still a freshman.

Syracuse has lost four games, but three of them by eight points or fewer. This team doesn't go away. Steve Angeli threw the game-winner against SMU, Umari Hatcher has a 224-yard game on his résumé, and Ahmad Miller carried 32 times for 133 yards against North Carolina. The Orange steal one.

UConn over North Carolina

The biggest swing on the card. UConn is a 7.5-point home underdog, and I think that's too many points to give a team with this offense.

Quarterback Kalieb Osborne has 17 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions, and according to PFF he ranks second in the country in big-time throw rate. The running back trio of Cyncir Bowers, Kenji Christian and Trey Cornist has combined for more than 1,100 yards at 6.3 yards a carry, and North Carolina's run defense has been leaky. UNC ran for just 66 yards against Miami.

The worry is UConn's penalties (more than 75 yards a game) and a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the country. But in a shootout, I'll ride Osborne at home. UConn pulls it off.

The Chalk
Utah over BYU

The Holy War with Playoff stakes. Utah is 8-0 and No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and it's at home. Devon Dampier (1,876 passing yards, 18 TDs) and Wayshawn Parker (726 rushing yards, 9 TDs) give Utah balance, and BYU's Bear Bachmeier (1,750 yards, 12 TDs) has to win this one through the air in a tough environment. Utah stays unbeaten.

Auburn over Arkansas

Auburn has lost two straight, to LSU and Ole Miss, but this is the team that went into Athens and beat Georgia. Byrum Brown has run for a touchdown in six straight games, and Arkansas has struggled to stop anything. The concern is Auburn's offensive line, which has allowed 34 sacks in eight games. Still, at home, coming off two losses, Auburn bounces back.

Baylor over Iowa State

Baylor fired Dave Aranda, and the Bears responded in interim coach Joe Klanderman's first game: a 41-9 rout of UCF with seven sacks. DJ Lagway threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns. Now it's homecoming in Waco.

Iowa State is coming off a wild 51-49 win over Oklahoma State, which sets up a classic letdown spot. The Cyclones are also missing two starting cornerbacks, and that's a problem against Lagway. Baylor rolls.

Track the card

Come back Saturday night and we'll see how the card did. Every College Football pick on GAPOdds is graded in public:

Bounty Board: how every pick did against the box score.
College Football Pick'ems: the GAPOdds model's call on every game with a Power 4 team.
College Football GAP Report: the player props for today's games.

Think I'm wrong? Tell me at r/GAPodds.

— The Outlaw

References
Yahoo Sports: Clemson vs Syracuse prediction and odds
Yahoo Sports: UNC vs UConn prediction and odds
Yahoo Sports: Iowa State vs Baylor prediction and odds
DraftKings Network: Auburn vs Arkansas preview
DraftKings Network: Baylor vs Iowa State preview
Covers: Arkansas vs Auburn odds
Covers: Clemson vs Syracuse odds
RG.org: Saturday odds and picks
Yahoo Sports: College Football Playoff rankings