How we did: our model's 2025 draft board next to the market (ADP) and how every player is doing for the season, in PPR.
Built by the GAPOdds model from what was known before the 2025 season: 2024 stats, age, injury history, team moves, the targets and carries that changed teams, and the 2025 draft class. Rebuilt with the model after kickoff, not a board we published before Week 1; from 2026 the board is locked before the season starts. Updated every Tuesday.
Hit: a top-50 pick finishing as a starter at his position (QB1–12, RB1–24, WR1–30, TE1–12). Bust: finishing outside twice that, missed time included. Finish: where he ranks for the season by value over replacement in a 12-team league.
Where we beat the market: Rico Dowdle (ours 106, ADP 199, finishing 40) · Alec Pierce (ours 100, ADP 201, finishing 73) · Kyle Pitts (ours 84, ADP 145, finishing 22) · Hunter Henry (ours 93, ADP 157, finishing 46) · Cade Otton (ours 72, ADP 196, finishing 91) · Kareem Hunt (ours 113, ADP 202, finishing 100)
| GAPOdds # ▲ | Player ↕ | ADP # ↕ | Finish ↕ | Pos ↕ | PPR pts ↕ | Result ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET Jahmyr Gibbs RB | 6 | 4 | RB3 | 366.9 | Hit |
| 3 | ATL Bijan Robinson RB | 2 | 2 | RB2 | 370.8 | Hit |
| 9 | MIA De'Von Achane RB | 14 | 8 | RB5 | 322.8 | Hit |
| 12 | PHI Saquon Barkley RB | 3 | 29 | RB14 | 232.3 | Hit |
| 20 | LV Ashton Jeanty RB | 13 | 23 | RB11 | 245.1 | Hit |
| 21 | LA Kyren Williams RB | 24 | 18 | RB9 | 263.3 | Hit |
| 24 | BAL Derrick Henry RB | 12 | 15 | RB8 | 279.5 | Hit |
| 25 | BUF James Cook RB | 36 | 11 | RB6 | 302.2 | Hit |
| 27 | IND Jonathan Taylor RB | 19 | 5 | RB4 | 362.3 | Hit |
| 29 | GB Josh Jacobs RB | 17 | 27 | RB13 | 237.1 | Hit |
| 32 | NO Alvin Kamara RB | 30 | 137 | RB42 | 100.7 | |
| 34 | TB Bucky Irving RB | 20 | 107 | RB33 | 138.5 | |
| 36 | NYJ Breece Hall RB | 49 | 50 | RB18 | 207.7 | Hit |
| 37 | CIN Chase Brown RB | 21 | 14 | RB7 | 282.6 | Hit |
| 40 | SEA Kenneth Walker III RB | 47 | 64 | RB21 | 191.9 | Hit |
| 42 | CAR Chuba Hubbard RB | 43 | 118 | RB37 | 125.4 | |
| 44 | HOU Joe Mixon RB | 115 | 200 | RB64 | 0.0 | Bust |
| 57 | DET David Montgomery RB | 62 | 80 | RB26 | 166.9 | |
| 58 | TB Rachaad White RB | 139 | 103 | RB31 | 143.0 | |
| 61 | ARI James Conner RB | 44 | 191 | RB57 | 33.3 | |
| 64 | CHI D'Andre Swift RB | 56 | 30 | RB15 | 228.6 | |
| 73 | MIN Aaron Jones RB | 65 | 127 | RB39 | 118.7 | |
| 80 | TEN Tony Pollard RB | 57 | 68 | RB22 | 185.8 | |
| 83 | CLE Jerome Ford RB | 131 | 183 | RB55 | 43.6 | |
| 87 | SEA Zach Charbonnet RB | 100 | 71 | RB23 | 181.4 | |
| 90 | LAC Omarion Hampton RB | 40 | 110 | RB34 | 135.7 | |
| 94 | NYG Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB | 76 | 87 | RB27 | 160.8 | |
| 98 | LAC Najee Harris RB | 170 | 197 | RB62 | 11.6 |
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