How we did: our model's 2025 draft board next to the market (ADP) and how every player is doing for the season, in PPR.
Built by the GAPOdds model from what was known before the 2025 season: 2024 stats, age, injury history, team moves, the targets and carries that changed teams, and the 2025 draft class. Rebuilt with the model after kickoff, not a board we published before Week 1; from 2026 the board is locked before the season starts. Updated every Tuesday.
Hit: a top-50 pick finishing as a starter at his position (QB1–12, RB1–24, WR1–30, TE1–12). Bust: finishing outside twice that, missed time included. Finish: where he ranks for the season by value over replacement in a 12-team league.
Where we beat the market: Rico Dowdle (ours 106, ADP 199, finishing 40) · Alec Pierce (ours 100, ADP 201, finishing 73) · Kyle Pitts (ours 84, ADP 145, finishing 22) · Hunter Henry (ours 93, ADP 157, finishing 46) · Cade Otton (ours 72, ADP 196, finishing 91) · Kareem Hunt (ours 113, ADP 202, finishing 100)
| GAPOdds # ▲ | Player ↕ | ADP # ↕ | Finish ↕ | Pos ↕ | PPR pts ↕ | Result ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CIN Ja'Marr Chase WR | 1 | 10 | WR4 | 313.6 | Hit |
| 6 | LA Puka Nacua WR | 9 | 3 | WR1 | 375.0 | Hit |
| 7 | NYG Malik Nabers WR | 7 | 177 | WR73 | 57.1 | Bust |
| 8 | JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR | 15 | 112 | WR40 | 138.8 | |
| 10 | DET Amon-Ra St. Brown WR | 11 | 9 | WR3 | 324.0 | Hit |
| 13 | ATL Drake London WR | 16 | 59 | WR19 | 201.9 | Hit |
| 14 | MIN Justin Jefferson WR | 4 | 62 | WR21 | 201.5 | Hit |
| 16 | DAL CeeDee Lamb WR | 5 | 63 | WR22 | 200.9 | Hit |
| 17 | SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 35 | 6 | WR2 | 359.9 | Hit |
| 18 | TB Chris Godwin Jr. WR | 101 | 158 | WR62 | 83.0 | Bust |
| 23 | HOU Nico Collins WR | 10 | 35 | WR8 | 226.2 | Hit |
| 28 | CIN Tee Higgins WR | 22 | 54 | WR16 | 211.6 | Hit |
| 35 | NYJ Garrett Wilson WR | 42 | 141 | WR52 | 99.5 | |
| 38 | PHI A.J. Brown WR | 18 | 43 | WR11 | 220.3 | Hit |
| 39 | MIN Jordan Addison WR | 99 | 114 | WR42 | 135.1 | |
| 41 | CLE Jerry Jeudy WR | 60 | 129 | WR46 | 120.7 | |
| 43 | KC Xavier Worthy WR | 52 | 136 | WR50 | 109.9 | |
| 45 | WAS Terry McLaurin WR | 38 | 133 | WR49 | 114.2 | |
| 46 | TB Mike Evans WR | 31 | 157 | WR61 | 84.8 | Bust |
| 47 | LAC Ladd McConkey WR | 25 | 75 | WR29 | 180.9 | Hit |
| 48 | PHI DeVonta Smith WR | 50 | 61 | WR20 | 201.8 | Hit |
| 50 | DET Jameson Williams WR | 66 | 44 | WR12 | 219.9 | Hit |
| 51 | KC Rashee Rice WR | 85 | 102 | WR38 | 150.1 | |
| 52 | IND Josh Downs WR | 95 | 113 | WR41 | 138.4 | |
| 53 | DEN Courtland Sutton WR | 48 | 45 | WR13 | 219.7 | |
| 55 | CHI DJ Moore WR | 45 | 81 | WR33 | 172.2 | |
| 62 | LA Davante Adams WR | 29 | 38 | WR9 | 222.9 | |
| 66 | SF Jauan Jennings WR | 86 | 79 | WR32 | 173.3 | |
| 68 | BAL Zay Flowers WR | 58 | 26 | WR7 | 243.3 | |
| 69 | JAX Jakobi Meyers WR | 73 | 77 | WR31 | 175.8 | |
| 75 | ARI Marvin Harrison Jr. WR | 41 | 124 | WR45 | 127.8 | |
| 76 | GB Jayden Reed WR | 105 | 184 | WR77 | 48.5 | |
| 78 | MIA Tyreek Hill WR | 27 | 180 | WR75 | 53.5 | |
| 79 | ATL Darnell Mooney WR | 107 | 159 | WR63 | 82.3 | |
| 81 | LAC Quentin Johnston WR | 182 | 83 | WR34 | 171.2 | |
| 82 | TEN Calvin Ridley WR | 59 | 185 | WR78 | 47.3 | |
| 85 | CAR Tetairoa McMillan WR | 54 | 49 | WR15 | 213.4 | |
| 86 | JAX Travis Hunter WR | 72 | 204 | WR85 | 0.0 | |
| 91 | BUF Khalil Shakir WR | 90 | 85 | WR35 | 166.4 | |
| 92 | NYG Wan'Dale Robinson WR | 127 | 47 | WR14 | 217.9 | |
| 99 | DAL George Pickens WR | 61 | 12 | WR5 | 291.9 | |
| 100 | IND Alec Pierce WR | 201 | 73 | WR27 | 183.3 |
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