The Outlaw's Card: How Saturday's Picks Did

I put six winners on the card Saturday morning: three favorites and three upsets. Here's how it went, the good and the bad. Nothing hidden.

Final: 3-3. The chalk went 3-0. The upsets went 0-3.

✅ Utah 28, BYU 20
✅ Baylor 42, Iowa State 31
✅ Auburn 26, Arkansas 23
❌ Texas 34, Missouri 20
❌ Clemson 18, Syracuse 13
❌ North Carolina 38, UConn 21

Against the spread, the card went 2-4: Utah and Baylor covered, Auburn won but didn't cover the 11.5, and all three underdogs lost by more than their points.

The Wins
✅ Utah 28, BYU 20

This one made me sweat. Utah jumped out 14-0, then BYU ripped off 20 straight points and led 20-14 at halftime. Devon Dampier brought the Utes back with a touchdown pass to Braden Pegan late in the third quarter and a scramble into the end zone early in the fourth. He finished with four total touchdowns: two passing, two rushing.

BYU's Bear Bachmeier threw for 272 yards but also threw a career-high four interceptions. The last one was the dagger: Nate Ritchie picked him off in the end zone on BYU's final drive. Utah is 9-0.

✅ Baylor 42, Iowa State 31

Iowa State went up 10-0 early, and for a minute it looked like I'd misjudged the letdown spot. Then DJ Lagway took over: 229 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and a season-high 119 rushing yards, including a 54-yard run. Baylor led 21-17 at halftime and scored three more touchdowns after the break. That makes the Bears 2-0 under interim coach Joe Klanderman, and they're now bowl-eligible.

✅ Auburn 26, Arkansas 23

Won, but not pretty. Arkansas led 10-3 at halftime and tied it 23-23 with under two minutes left. Auburn answered with a 50-yard drive, and Alex McPherson hit a 43-yard field goal with 33 seconds to go. Byrum Brown carried the offense with 180 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 120 rushing yards. He ran for a touchdown again, now seven straight games.

The Losses
❌ Texas 34, Missouri 20

For three quarters, this looked right. Missouri led 20-13 in the third quarter after a 72-yard touchdown catch. Then Arch Manning took over: 28-of-38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Texas scored the last 21 points, and the Longhorns' defense shut Missouri out in the fourth quarter.

The turning point came before halftime, when Texas blocked a Missouri punt and turned it into points. I bet on Missouri's ground game controlling the clock. Instead, Manning was too good, and Missouri couldn't finish.

❌ Clemson 18, Syracuse 13

Syracuse lost by five and turned it over three times. That's the whole story. Steve Angeli threw two interceptions, and his third-quarter fumble was returned for a Clemson touchdown. Clemson's offense scored no other touchdowns all day, getting the rest from kicker Nolan Hauser's field goals.

The Orange cut it to 18-13 with three minutes left but couldn't get the ball back, as freshman Tait Reynolds moved the chains to close it out. I was right about the game being close. Turnovers killed it.

❌ North Carolina 38, UConn 21

The worst miss on the card. UNC's defense forced three turnovers off Kalieb Osborne, including a 62-yard pick-six in the first quarter, and led 28-14 at halftime. Then the rain came, and UConn's passing game never recovered. Tight end Jelani Thurman caught two touchdowns for the Tar Heels.

Osborne came in with 2 interceptions all season and threw 2 in this game. Sometimes that's football.

What I learned
The favorites earned it. All three chalk picks were in danger at some point, and all three found a way. Good teams close.
Turnovers are the upset killer. Syracuse and UConn combined for five turnovers. An underdog can't give away free possessions.
Don't fight elite quarterback play. Manning played his best game of the year on the road. The Missouri pick was built on the run game, and it didn't account for that.

Upsets are hard; that's why they pay. We'll be back with another card next Saturday. Baylor gets BYU at noon, if you're looking for an early circle on the calendar.

Keep the receipts

Every College Football pick on GAPOdds is graded the same way, in public:

Bounty Board: the GAP Board, our Fantasy Pros, member picks and your own, graded against the box score.
College Football Pick'ems: the GAPOdds model's record on every game with a Power 4 team.

Think you can beat my card? Post your picks at r/GAPodds.

— The Outlaw

References
ESPN: Utah 28, BYU 20
BYU Athletics: No. 9 BYU falls at No. 3 Utah
VAVEL: Dampier shines, Ritchie seals the win
Texas Athletics: Texas secures 34-20 win at Missouri
Yahoo Sports: Clemson 18, Syracuse 13, turnovers ruin Orange
North Carolina Athletics: Tar Heels win at UConn, 38-21
Auburn Athletics: Auburn rallies past Arkansas 26-23
Baylor Lariat: Baylor storms back to beat Iowa State 42-31