The Outlaw's NBA Card: 6 Props for Friday Night

Friday's NBA slate is loaded, and I've got six props on my card tonight. Three of them line up with picks on tonight's locked GAP Board, two more agree with our projections, and one is my own read that our model calls a coin flip. Here's every pick, why I like it, and what our numbers say.

The card

Matas Buzelis under 2.5 threes (Bulls vs. Hawks, 7:00 p.m. CT) · GAP Board No. 3
Keegan Murray under 1.5 threes (Kings vs. Trail Blazers, 9:00 p.m. CT)
Brandin Podziemski under 9.5 rebounds + assists (Warriors at Spurs, 8:30 p.m. CT) · GAP Board No. 10
Devin Vassell under 6.5 rebounds + assists (Warriors at Spurs, 8:30 p.m. CT) · GAP Board No. 13
Saddiq Bey over 1.5 assists (Pelicans vs. Grizzlies, 7:00 p.m. CT)
Peyton Watson over 7.5 rebounds + assists (Cavaliers vs. Heat, 7:00 p.m. CT)

1. Matas Buzelis under 2.5 threes ✅ On the GAP Board

Our projection: 1.8 threes. His median: 2.

This is the No. 3 pick on tonight's GAP Board. His threes line was 1.5 on Wednesday. Tonight it's 2.5, but Buzelis' typical night is two threes, not three. When a line moves up a full make on a role player, the under is where the value goes.

1. Keegan Murray under 1.5 threes ✅ Our projection agrees

Our projection: 1.0 three. His median: 0.

Murray's median this season is zero made threes. He needs two to beat this line, and our model has him at one. The GAP Board also has Murray's rebounds + assists under 4.5 tonight (No. 16), so the model doesn't expect a big night from him in any category.

1. Brandin Podziemski under 9.5 rebounds + assists ✅ On the GAP Board

Our projection: 8.9.

No. 10 on tonight's board. Podziemski is coming off 22 points, six rebounds and four assists in Houston, but that's exactly 10, and he needed a big night to get there. With Stephen Curry out (oblique), Podziemski will handle the ball more, which is the risk here. More of his touches figure to turn into shots rather than assists, and San Antonio's size, with Victor Wembanyama protecting the rim, makes rebounds hard to come by.

1. Devin Vassell under 6.5 rebounds + assists ✅ On the GAP Board

Our projection: 6.4. His median: 6.5.

No. 13 on tonight's board, and the thinnest edge of the three GAP Board picks. Vassell is questionable with left adductor tightness, so check his status before tip. If he plays through it, a player nursing a groin injury isn't usually crashing the glass harder than normal. If he sits, the prop is void at most books.

1. Saddiq Bey over 1.5 assists ⚠️ Shop for this line

Our projection: 2.3 assists. His median: 3.

Here's the catch: at most books we track, Bey's assist line tonight is 2.5, not 1.5. At 2.5, our model leans slightly under (2.3). But at 1.5, it's a strong over. He's averaged 2.3 to 2.4 assists in our projections all week, and his median is 3. If you can find 1.5, take it. If all you can find is 2.5, pass.

1. Peyton Watson over 7.5 rebounds + assists 🤔 My call

Our projection: 7.4. His median: 8.

This one's my read over the model. Our projection has Watson a tenth under the line, basically a coin flip. But his median is 8, meaning he's cleared 7.5 more often than not. Our projections have him at about 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists tonight, so a normal game gets him right to the number, and one extra board or dime clears it. I'll ride the median.

What the full GAP Board says tonight

Every one of tonight's 25 GAP Board picks is an under, which tells you how high the books have set lines on a busy Friday. Here's the full board:

Before tip
Check Vassell and De'Aaron Fox. Both are questionable for the Spurs.
Stephen Curry is out for at least two weeks with an oblique tear, which changes the Warriors' rotation.
Every prop line, our projection and the gap for tonight's games are on the NBA GAP Report.
We'll grade the GAP Board picks against the box score tonight. The full record is on the NBA Bounty Board.

NBA is still in Beta on GAPOdds. We grade every pick in public while we tune it.

Think I'm wrong? Tell me at r/GAPodds.

— The Outlaw

References
Warriors.com: Game preview, Warriors at Spurs
NBA official injury report, Nov. 13, 4:15 p.m. ET
ESPN: NBA injuries