TNF Start/Sit: Commanders vs Giants, Week 10

Week 10 kicks off with an NFC East game that matters more for one team than the other. The Giants (5-2-1) are trying to stay on top of the division. Washington (2-5-1) is fighting for its season, and maybe its coach's job. These teams tied 27-27 in October.

7:15 p.m. CT / 8:15 p.m. ET · Prime Video · MetLife Stadium

The line: Giants -2 to -2.5. The total: down from 43.5 to about 40.5 to 41. Vegas expects a grind.

Injury check
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Giants: off the injury report after a full week of practice. He's playing through a hip injury and makes his first home start.
Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants: off the report after missing Week 9 with a hamstring injury, and expected back.
Malik Nabers and Andrew Thomas, Giants: full participants.
Commanders: C Lucas Patrick (concussion) and TE Colson Yankoff (knee) are out. Treylon Burks is expected to play.

Inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff. Double-check Skattebo and McCarthy before you lock your lineup.

✅ START
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants

Our projection: 16.5 PPR points, a top-6 WR this week. He leads the Giants with 53 catches and 648 yards, and he's the one Giant who's matchup-proof. He's also on our GAP Board tonight (more below).

Isaiah Likely, TE, Giants

Our projection: 15.6 points, the No. 3 TE of the week. Likely had 53 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, and our model has him for about 6 catches tonight. In a tight end landscape this thin, that's a must-start.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders

Our projection: 15.5 points, a mid-range QB1/QB2. Daniels hasn't thrown an interception all season on 180 attempts, and his legs are the upside: he ran for 103 yards against the Giants in the first meeting, and New York allows 123.6 rushing yards a game. Start him.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants (if active)

With Tyrone Tracy Jr. on IR, Skattebo is the Giants' lead back and their short-yardage option. He leads the team with 418 rushing yards. He's an RB2 tonight, with touchdown upside in a game where the Giants are favored at home.

🤔 FLEX
Stefon Diggs, WR, Commanders

Five touchdowns on just 30 catches. Our projection is 4.6 catches and 48 yards, about 9 PPR points, so he's a touchdown-dependent WR3 in a low-scoring game.

Rachaad White, RB, Commanders

About 61 rushing and receiving yards in our projection (10.7 PPR points). White is a fine RB3/flex, but the volume isn't big.

❌ SIT
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Giants

He's playing, but on a bad hip, in a game with a 41-point total. Our projection is under 12 points, outside the top 20 QBs. Only start him in deep superflex leagues.

Devin Singletary, RB, Giants

He was useful with Skattebo out. With Skattebo back, Singletary goes back to a change-of-pace role.

Antonio Williams, WR, Commanders

The rookie has been Washington's top target since Terry McLaurin's injury, but our projection is under 7 PPR points tonight, with 2.8 catches against a 3.5 line. Hold him and sit him.

Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders

Our projection: about 26 rushing and receiving yards. Not startable.

Van Jefferson, WR, Commanders

He scored last week, but he's a touchdown-or-bust WR4.

D/ST to consider: Giants

Daniels has been sacked 16 times, and Washington is down its starting center. If you need a streamer, the Giants' defense at home is a reasonable play.

Tonight's props
On the GAP Board: Malik Nabers over 67.5 receiving yards

Nabers is our only pick from tonight's game on today's locked GAP Board. Our projection is 68 yards, with a median of 90 yards. It's a thin edge, but his median tells you how often he blows past this number.

Early edges from the GAP Report
Austin Ekeler under 44.5 rushing + receiving yards: our projection is just 26 yards. The strongest number for tonight's game on our board.
Isaiah Likely over 4.5 receptions: projection 5.4.
Stefon Diggs over 3.5 receptions: projection 4.6.
Jayden Daniels under 201.5 passing yards: projection 181, in a game Vegas expects to stay low. Daniels' damage tonight should come with his legs.

The Pick'em

Our Ratings and picks are for subscribers. The Vegas line is free for everyone.

Before kickoff
Start 'Em / Sit 'Em: these calls, sized to your league and scored your way.
Game page: every prop line for tonight's game.
Bounty Board: we'll grade tonight's GAP Board pick against the box score.

Enjoy the game, and talk TNF with us at r/GAPodds.

References
Giants.com: Week 10 injury report
Athlon Sports: Final injury report for Commanders-Giants
National Football Post: Week 10 TNF preview, prop picks and prediction
ESPN: Commanders vs. Giants game page