Abubakar Vagaev

Fighter stats updated Fri 10:54 PM CT · Next update Today 8:00 AM CT

25-4-0 (W-L-D) · Middleweight · Unranked

Next fight · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Abubakar VagaevvsJacob Malkoun

Malkoun: 10-3-0 · Unranked

Saturday, October 24, 2026
Early prelims: starts 11:00 AM CT (main card 1:00 PM CT)
Early prelims, bout 2 of 5 from the top
Middleweight Bout
3 rounds
Etihad Arena
Picks lock Sat 11:00 AM CT

Times are Central. Fights within a section don't have their own start times; the main event goes last.

Tale of the tape

Vagaev		Malkoun
25-4-0	Record	10-3-0
NR	Rank	NR
33	Age	31
6' 0"	Height	5' 9"
—	Reach	73"
—	Stance	MMA
1.80	Sig str / min	4.23
2.20	Absorbed / min	2.33
39	Str acc %	57
60	Str def %	55
1.33	TD / round	1.80
71	TD def %	56
0.00	Sub att / round	0.25
14	KO win %	23
3	Sub win %	0

This week's lines and our projection

Our model's pick: 🔒 Subscribers only

Prop	Line	Proj	Gap	Lean	Likely %
Total rounds	2.5	🔒	🔒	🔒	🔒

Outcome	Price	Model	Gap	Book	Likely %
Vagaev to win	-158 · 61%	🔒	🔒	59% implied	🔒
Malkoun to win	+134 · 43%	🔒	🔒	41% implied	🔒

Whoever the model gives over 50% is the projected winner. Gap = projection vs the line (stat props), or the model's chance minus the price's chance in points (winner and method).

See this fight on the UFC Gap Sheet →

Fighter numbers

Record25-4-0W-L-D, all pro fights

RankNRMiddleweight

Age33

Height6' 0"

Reach—

Stance—

Sig str / min	Absorbed / min	Str acc %	Str def %	TD / round	TD acc %	TD def %	Sub att / round	KO win %	Sub win %	Avg fight (min)
1.80	2.20	39	60	1.33	0	71	0.00	14	3	15.0

Rates come from UFC fights only (UFC.com). Per-round numbers are UFC.com's per-15-minute rates divided by 3. Hover or press a column name for what it means. Compare him with his weight class on Fighter Details.

How he wins and loses

Fighter	Record	KO/TKO wins	Sub wins	Decision wins	Finish rate	Lost by KO/TKO	Lost by sub	Lost by decision
Vagaev	25-4-0	4 (16%)	1 (4%)	20 (80%)	20%	0last 10	0last 10	0last 10

Wins by method are from his whole pro record (UFC.com), with each as a % of his wins. Finish rate = KO/TKO + submission wins as a % of his wins. Numbers marked last 10 are counted from his last 10 fights, because UFC.com doesn't list them for his whole record.

Last 1 fights

Result	Method	Ended	Opponent	Date
W Win	Decision	R3 5:00	Izagakhmaev	Jul 25, 2026

Most recent first, from UFC.com. Fights saved before dates were added show —; they fill in at the next update.