โ† UFC Bounty Board

Tom Nolan

Fighter stats updated 40 min ago ยท Next update Tomorrow 8:00 AM CT

11-1-0 (W-L-D) ยท Lightweight ยท #14 Lightweight

Next fight ยท UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Tom NolanvsRenato Moicano

Moicano: 21-7-1 ยท #12 Lightweight

  • Sunday, November 1, 2026
  • Main card: starts 7:00 PM CT
  • Main event
  • Lightweight Bout
  • 5 rounds
  • Meta APEX
  • Picks lock Sat 4:00 PM CT

Times are Central. Fights within a section don't have their own start times; the main event goes last.

Tale of the tape

NolanMoicano
11-1-0Record21-7-1
#14Rank#12
26Age37
6' 3"Height5' 11"
73"Reach72"
โ€”StanceJiu-Jitsu
4.84Sig str / min4.10
3.74Absorbed / min3.55
46Str acc %49
49Str def %60
0.36TD / round0.56
58TD def %64
0.45Sub att / round0.19
42KO win %7
8Sub win %38

This week's lines and our projection

Our model's pick: ๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers only

OutcomePriceModelGapBookLikely %
Nolan to win-115 ยท 53%๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’51% implied๐Ÿ”’
Moicano to win-105 ยท 51%๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’49% implied๐Ÿ”’

Whoever the model gives over 50% is the projected winner. Gap = projection vs the line (stat props), or the model's chance minus the price's chance in points (winner and method).

See this fight on the UFC Gap Sheet โ†’

Fighter numbers

Record11-1-0W-L-D, all pro fights
Rank#14Lightweight
Age26
Height6' 3"
Reach73"
Stanceโ€”
Sig str / minAbsorbed / minStr acc %Str def %TD / roundTD acc %TD def %Sub att / roundKO win %Sub win %Avg fight (min)
4.843.7446490.360580.454287.9

Rates come from UFC fights only (UFC.com). Per-round numbers are UFC.com's per-15-minute rates divided by 3. Hover or press a column name for what it means. Compare him with his weight class on Fighter Details.

How he wins and loses

FighterRecordKO/TKO winsSub winsDecision winsFinish rateLost by KO/TKOLost by subLost by decision
Nolan11-1-05 (45%)1 (9%)5 (45%)55%0last 100last 100last 10

Wins by method are from his whole pro record (UFC.com), with each as a % of his wins. Finish rate = KO/TKO + submission wins as a % of his wins. Numbers marked last 10 are counted from his last 10 fights, because UFC.com doesn't list them for his whole record.

Last 3 fights

ResultMethodEndedOpponentDate
W WinDecisionR3 5:00ZiamJun 6, 2026
W WinSubmissionR1 4:08CampbellSep 27, 2025
W WinDecisionR3 5:00BorshchevFeb 8, 2025

Most recent first, from UFC.com. Fights saved before dates were added show โ€”; they fill in at the next update.