MNF Preview: Bills at Vikings, Props and the Pick

Week 9 closes with a heavyweight fight. Buffalo and Minnesota are both 6-1, both unbeaten in their own building, and both built to make the other team's quarterback miserable. And the top three picks on tonight's GAP Board all come from this one game.

7:15 p.m. CT / 8:15 p.m. ET · ESPN · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis (indoors)

The setup

The line: Bills -3. Minnesota opened +2.5, went to +3.5 when Carson Wentz was named the starter, and has settled at +3.

The total: down to 43.5 to 44.5 at most books. It started as high as 48.5 on the lookahead line, and the Wentz news knocked it down. The Vikings have gone under in 16 of their last 19 games.

The quarterbacks:

Josh Allen comes in as the MVP favorite, and he's been brutal against Brian Flores' defenses: 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in six career meetings.
Carson Wentz starts for Minnesota with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring injury. Wentz is 2-0 in his starts this season (23-of-39, 276 yards, 3 TDs), but he threw five interceptions in five starts last year.

The defenses: Minnesota blitzes on a league-high 73% of dropbacks and leads the league in sacks, pressure, points allowed and opposing QBR. Buffalo's defense ranks third in pressure rate. Points won't come easy for either side.

Injuries that matter

Bills

LT Dion Dawkins (ribs) and LG Alec Anderson (ankle): questionable after missing practice. Against the league's most aggressive blitz, the left side of Buffalo's line is the injury report to watch.
WR Josh Palmer (hamstring): out.
RT Spencer Brown: cleared after missing Week 8. D.J. Moore was limited but is cleared.

Vikings

QB Kyler Murray (hamstring): out. Wentz starts.
WR Jauan Jennings (calf): out.
S Theo Jackson: questionable.
Our GAP Board props for tonight

All three of today's top GAP Board picks come from this game. They're locked, and they'll be graded against the box score tonight.

1. Keon Coleman, BUF: under 2.5 receptions

Our projection: 1.7 catches. Coleman has been on our board all week. Buffalo's passing game runs through Dalton Kincaid (11 catches over his last two games), Moore and Shakir, and against a blitz-heavy defense, Allen will look for his quickest reads. Coleman is a downfield target in a game that should stay tight and low-scoring.

1. James Cook, BUF: over 1.5 receptions

Our projection: 1.7 catches. Cook has 21+ carries in five of Buffalo's seven games. The way you beat the league's most aggressive blitz is by getting the ball out fast, and the running back check-down is the quickest throw there is. Two catches clears it.

1. T.J. Hockenson, MIN: over 40.5 receiving yards

Our projection: 40.7 yards, the tightest edge of the three. Wentz leans on his tight end: Hockenson drew four targets in Wentz's only start and five in the opener. With Jennings out and Buffalo bringing pressure, the middle of the field is where Wentz will go.

Our Ratings are on the props card for subscribers.

The Pick'em

Our call on the winner, the spread and the total:

The Vegas line is free for everyone. Our winner, spread and total picks are for subscribers.

Sunday's receipts ride on tonight

Sunday's NFL GAP Board went 13–10 with two picks still open: Coleman under 2.5 catches and Cook over 1.5 catches. Sweep them and Sunday finishes 15–10.

Track every pick live on the Bounty Board, and find every prop line for tonight on the game page and the GAP Report.

Enjoy the game, and talk it with us at r/GAPodds.

References
Bleacher Nation: Bills vs. Vikings odds, line movement and injuries
Covers: Bills vs. Vikings prediction and odds
ClutchPoints: Bills vs. Vikings prediction and odds
SportsLine: Bills vs. Vikings betting preview