NFL Pick'ems

Our pick for every game: who wins and how often, our odds, the projected score and total, and our side against the spread. Graded after every game.

Winners67.0%71โ€“35โ€“1
Against the spread61.4%62โ€“39โ€“6
Over / under45.0%45โ€“55

2026 season ยท Vegas favorites won 64.2% of the same games (68โ€“38). Break-even against the spread and over/under is 52.4% at standard โˆ’110 odds.

How we've done ยท 2026 season
How our picks have done, 2026 season (break-even is 52.4% at โˆ’110 odds)
PickRecordHit %
Winners71โ€“35โ€“167.0% (Vegas favorites 64.2%)
ATS62โ€“39โ€“661.4%
Over/Under45โ€“5545.0%

52.4% break-even ยท Vegas favorites ยท Tap a bar for its ratings

By rating ยท Winners
Winners picks by Rating, 2026 season (break-even is 52.4% at โˆ’110 odds)
PickRecordHit %
Lean71โ€“35โ€“167.0%
Over the season
Prediction recordRunning % through each week this season
  • Winners 67.0%
  • ATS 61.4%
  • O/U 45.0%
  • Vegas favorites 64.2%
  • 52.4% break-even (ATS, O/U)
Prediction record through each week (break-even against the spread and over/under is 52.4% at โˆ’110 odds)
WeekWinnersATSO/UVegas favorites
Week 168.8%66.7%31.3%75.0%
Week 259.4%64.5%35.5%71.9%
Week 360.4%64.4%41.3%66.7%
Week 465.6%57.6%41.9%64.1%
Week 567.9%57.5%42.7%64.1%
Week 667.4%57.5%42.0%63.0%
Week 767.0%61.4%45.0%64.2%

Week 4

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Thursday Night

PIT @ CLEFinal: PIT 24, CLE 27

Winner

Lean
CLE 51% to winOur odds CLE โˆ’104 ยท PIT +104 โœ“
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

Lean
PIT โˆ’2.5 โœ—
Vegas spread PIT โˆ’2.5

Over/Under

Low
O 38.5 ยท our total 39 (PIT 19, CLE 20) โœ“
Vegas total 38.5

Sunday early

IND @ WASFinal: IND 30, WAS 13

Winner

Lean
IND 57% to winOur odds IND โˆ’130 ยท WAS +130 โœ“
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

Strong
IND โˆ’4.5 โœ“
Vegas spread IND โˆ’4.5

Over/Under

Low
O 46.5 ยท our total 51 (IND 26, WAS 24) โœ—
Vegas total 46.5
ARI @ NYGFinal: ARI 24, NYG 36

Winner

Lean
NYG 52% to winOur odds NYG โˆ’108 ยท ARI +108 โœ“
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

Strong
ARI โˆ’2.5 โœ—
Vegas spread ARI โˆ’2.5

Over/Under

Low
O 44.5 ยท our total 45.5 (ARI 22, NYG 23) โœ“
Vegas total 44.5
DAL @ HOUFinal: DAL 34, HOU 30

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread HOU โˆ’3

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 48.5
GB @ TBFinal: GB 17, TB 14

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread GB โˆ’3

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 38.5
JAX @ CINFinal: JAX 22, CIN 17

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread CIN โˆ’2.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 51.5
LA @ PHIFinal: LA 24, PHI 20

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread LA โˆ’3.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 42.5
NE @ BUFFinal: NE 29, BUF 26

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread BUF โˆ’7

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 49.5
NYJ @ CHIFinal: NYJ 12, CHI 23

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread CHI โˆ’3.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 43.5
TEN @ BALFinal: TEN 18, BAL 24

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread BAL โˆ’11.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 42.5

Sunday late

MIA @ MINFinal: MIA 10, MIN 15

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread MIN โˆ’10

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 38.5
DEN @ SFFinal: DEN 14, SF 24

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread SF โˆ’3

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 48.5
KC @ LVFinal: KC 30, LV 27

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread KC โˆ’4.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 47.5
LAC @ SEAFinal: LAC 23, SEA 30

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread SEA โˆ’7

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 42.5

Sunday Night

DET @ CARFinal: DET 26, CAR 32

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread DET โˆ’4.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 52.5

Monday Night

ATL @ NOFinal: ATL 45, NO 24

Winner

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas moneyline โ€”

ATS

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas spread NO โˆ’1.5

Over/Under

๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers
Vegas total 47.5

What the numbers mean

  • Winner: the team we expect to win and how often we expect it to win a game like this one. Our odds are that win % written as American odds (โˆ’165 means a favorite we expect to win about 62% of the time), next to the sportsbooks' moneyline.
  • ATS: the side we expect to cover the Vegas point spread.
  • Over/Under: whether we expect more (O) or fewer (U) points than the Vegas total, with the total and score we expect.
  • Rating (Low ยท Lean ยท Strong): how picks like this one have done for us so far. Strong is our best group; Low has no edge.
  • Records: every graded game in the season you choose (this season, last season or all-time). Spread and over/under picks are graded at the closing Vegas line, and a push doesn't count either way.

For entertainment and information. No pick is a sure thing.