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Grant Dawson

Fighter stats updated Fri 10:54 PM CT ยท Next update Today 8:00 AM CT

24-3-1 (W-L-D) ยท Lightweight ยท Unranked

Next fight ยท UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Grant DawsonvsNurullo Aliev

Aliev: 12-0-0 ยท Unranked

  • Saturday, October 24, 2026
  • Prelims: starts 11:00 AM CT (main card 1:00 PM CT)
  • Prelims, bout 4 of 4 from the top
  • Lightweight Bout
  • 3 rounds
  • Etihad Arena
  • Picks lock Sat 11:00 AM CT

Times are Central. Fights within a section don't have their own start times; the main event goes last.

Tale of the tape

DawsonAliev
24-3-1Record12-0-0
NRRankNR
32Age25
5' 10"Height5' 10"
72"Reach72"
โ€”StanceWrestling
3.14Sig str / min2.29
2.14Absorbed / min1.59
51Str acc %44
45Str def %55
1.19TD / round1.16
67TD def %80
0.45Sub att / round0.15
18KO win %17
50Sub win %0

This week's lines and our projection

Our model's pick: ๐Ÿ”’ Subscribers only

PropLineProjGapLeanLikely %
Total rounds2.5๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’
OutcomePriceModelGapBookLikely %
Dawson to win-118 ยท 54%๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’52% implied๐Ÿ”’
Aliev to win-103 ยท 51%๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”’48% implied๐Ÿ”’

Whoever the model gives over 50% is the projected winner. Gap = projection vs the line (stat props), or the model's chance minus the price's chance in points (winner and method).

See this fight on the UFC Gap Sheet โ†’

Fighter numbers

Record24-3-1W-L-D, all pro fights
RankNRLightweight
Age32
Height5' 10"
Reach72"
Stanceโ€”
Sig str / minAbsorbed / minStr acc %Str def %TD / roundTD acc %TD def %Sub att / roundKO win %Sub win %Avg fight (min)
3.142.1451451.190670.45185011.0

Rates come from UFC fights only (UFC.com). Per-round numbers are UFC.com's per-15-minute rates divided by 3. Hover or press a column name for what it means. Compare him with his weight class on Fighter Details.

How he wins and loses

FighterRecordKO/TKO winsSub winsDecision winsFinish rateLost by KO/TKOLost by subLost by decision
Dawson24-3-15 (21%)14 (58%)5 (21%)79%0last 100last 100last 10

Wins by method are from his whole pro record (UFC.com), with each as a % of his wins. Finish rate = KO/TKO + submission wins as a % of his wins. Numbers marked last 10 are counted from his last 10 fights, because UFC.com doesn't list them for his whole record.

Last 3 fights

ResultMethodEndedOpponentDate
W WinSubmissionR3 4:42RebeckiMay 9, 2026
W WinKO/TKOR1 2:25TorresDec 6, 2025
W WinDecisionR3 5:00FerreiraJan 18, 2025

Most recent first, from UFC.com. Fights saved before dates were added show โ€”; they fill in at the next update.